2A District 1/2 Preview

UPDATE: 10-05 - confirmed that Sammamish will not be running a full, scoring girls team, as they have only registered 3 runners for the meet.  The same three that ran in the varsity race at their Conference meet.  The potential effect would be a possible point detriment to Burlington because if RaynJoy Norton had slipped in front of Silva and Silva counted in the scoring it could have given Burlington a point advantage on Cedarcrest.  But, with four state spots, it is unlikely this will have any effect on the teams qualifying for state.

Projected District Results.  Just a rough estimate to see how things look going in.  This is based mainly from merging the conference meets with time adjustments for courses.  An occasional additional adjustment here or there.  Northwest Conference Course used as base zero.  40 second adjustment for Cascade Conference Course  at South Whidbey and 10 seconds from Kingco at Lake Sammammish – don’t know reason why, but Lake Sammammish course did not appear to run as fast as it usually does.  Cascade Conference adjustment is always difficult as the conference meet is usually pretty spread out, likely affecting times more than just a course adjustment.  Again rough estimates as no other major adjustments were made for off days and no graduated adjustment used.  Some teams take their conference meets pretty easy and some teams pretty much guaranteed state berths take a more conservative approach at Districts.  Plus, some kids simply run out of their heads to make it to state, so should be interesting…

Boys-3 teams to state

Sehome                       49

Squalicum                   69

Bellingham                  71

Cedarcrest                   111

Anacortes                    118

Lakewood                   137

Lake Washington        198

Burlington-E               212

Archbishop-M             250

Granite Falls                278

Sammammish              312

Lynden                        358

Sedro Woolley            369

Girls-4 teams to state

Assuming that Sammammish will not run a full scoring team - Confirmed, see note at top of post.

Sehome                       25

Bellingham                  77

Cedarcrest                   82

Burlington-E               101

Lakewood                   146

Squalicum                   179

Lake Washington        222

Sedro Woolley            240

Granite Falls                252

Archibishop-M            263

Anacortes                    278

Lynden                        inc.

Sammamish                 inc.

NWC Championships - brief summary

The weather was great and the times were fast.  This is the fifth year the Conference has been run on the exact same course, so it is easy to compare times to previous years, and in all accounts, this was a fast year. Tom Bradley out dueled Patrick Gibson for the Boys Title, and Sehome took the team title averaging 16:05 for their top 5, with Squalicum just edging out Bellingham for second.  The big difference for Sehome was at 4 and 5.  On the girls side, with Brittany Gappa out sick, Emily Pittis cruised to the individual title.  Sehome placed 5 in the top 7 to win with 22 points and a top 5 average of 19:02 (a meet record) - a score that would have actually beat the rest of the conference combined.    Bellingham finished 2nd with 68 points, and Burlington was 3rd with what had to be a disappointing 99 points.

Varsity Boys

1. Sehome 58
2. Squalicum 80
3. Bellingham 82
4. Anacortes 130
5. Meridian 139
6. Lynden Christian 165
7. Ferndale 170
8. Burlington-Edison 201
9. Blaine 243
10. Mt. Baker 254
11. Nooksack Valley 322
12. Lynden 335
13. Sedro Woolley 345

Varsity Girls

1. Sehome 22
2. Bellingham 68
3. Burlington-Edison 99
4. Meridian 108
5. Lynden Christian 137
6. Ferndale 177
7. Mt. Baker 188
8. Nooksack Valley 208
9. Squalicum 239
10. Secro Woolley 251
11. Anacortes 278

JV Boys

1. Sehome 18
2. Squalicum 55
3. Anacortes 76
4. Bellingham 101
5. Meridian 158
6. Lynden Christian 175
7. Burlington-Edison 187
8. Lynden 214
9. Blaine 250
10. Sedro Woolley 279


JV Girls

1. Sehome 17
2. Bellingham 42
3. Burlington-Edison 91
4. Meridian 114
5. Ferndale 126
6. Sedro Woolley 170

2A Rankings heading into Post Season

Heading into Post Season, here are some thoughts on how things line up in 2A:

Boys

Cedarcrest has closed hard to put themselves in contention for a State bid in District 1.  District 1 has the Top 4 teams in the state, but only 3 state berths.  The District meet should be a blood bath...Down the road, the State title could be decided with the #5 runners, as all title contenders appear to be struggling to fulfill this role.

1. Sehome
2. Squalicum
3. Bellingham
4. Cedarcrest
5. Deer Park
6. Selah
7. Cheney
8. Lindbergh
9. Capital
10. Mark Morris


Girls

Two of Cheney's top 5 returners on paper from last year's State Champion team have yet to run this year - at this point in the season, they have to be moved down the rankings for this and those of us now in the know have to consider it more and more likely that they will not race this year.  Still difficult to gauge Bellingham and Burlington as they both appear to have a tremendous amount of talent lined up, but haven't quite clicked as a full team this year.

1. Sehome
2. North Kitsap
3. Capital
4. Burlington
5. Bellingham
6. Cheney
7. Cedarcrest
8. Kingston
9. Lakewood
10. Deer Park

Heading into Conference Championships - Girls Preview

See Boys preview below for thoughts on the intrigue of the Northwest Conference Championship Meet.

On the girls side, there are also many interesting things to watch.  Sehome is the heavy favorite, but the intrigue is to see where this teams times will stand compared to past seasons and can they get all top runners clicking on the same day for the first time this year.  The Battle for second should be very tight between Burlington and Bellingham - both contenders and likely favorites for trophies at state, the season to date has been a little below what both had probably suspected - look for them to both to use the Conference Meet to make things right and springboard themselves into the post season.  1A power Meridian has Sydney Gray back after she has missed the vast majority of the season with a stress fracture.  If she comes back strong, Meridian puts themselves back into contention for a State Trophy.  With Gray back in reasonable form, Meridian should be able to hold off fellow 1A Lynden Christian.  Projecting things out, their is an extremely tight battle for 5th place, with 5th-8th place projecting Lynden Christian, Mt. Baker, Ferndale, and Squalicum to all be within 7 points of each other.  Look for Gappa and Pittis to battle for the individual title, with Meggison, Norton, and Oviatt battling over the 3rd through 5th spots.  Beyond that, the question will be can Jensen, Hielkema, Gray, Capron, and Hatcher break up a slew of Sehome runners (Sullivan, Cybula, Hannah, Ringler, Huffman, Clark, Anderson) battling for top ten spots.

Team Predictions


1. Sehome
2. Burlington
3. Bellingham
4. Meridian
5. Lynden Christian
6. Mt. Baker
7. Ferndale
8. Squalicum
9. Nooksack Valley
10. Sedro Woolley
11. Anacortes
12. Lynden
13. Blaine - inc.

Heading into the Conference Championship: Where things stand - Boys

The Northwest Conference Championship Meet is this Wednesday, October 17th - moved up a day due to facility conflicts.  The Conference Meet is always an interesting entity, for many reasons.  One, the NWC has been very deep over the last several years, so it is always a very competitive meet, with some of the top 2A and 1A teams in the state.  Secondly, every team handles it differently.  Some teams destined for state, may hold back a bit, while others may go for it as they want to gauge where they are at.  Many teams have fierce battles going on for their top 7 spots, which can lead to some very intense mid-pack racing.  Lesser teams prime for this meet above all others.  Some teams Wall of Fame's are based off Conference Meet Performances.  With this being the 5th year in a row at the same location, the meet gives teams a great chance to gauge where they are versus previous years.  All in all, many things come together to make it one of the most exciting and fascinating meets of the year.  With this being the 4th year in a row at the same location.

The Boys might lines up to be an amazing battle, as Sehome, Squalicum, and Bellingham are still ranked 1st through 3rd in the State, respectively.  In addition, the individual battle is deeper than it has ever been - Gibson, Bradley, Quintanna, Johnsen, Henderson, Jungkuntz x 2, Fontes, Charbonneaur, Fredlund, and Overman.  Very few Conference Meets of any classification have a top 10 like this.   All that being said, the prediction is that Gibson will retain his individual title and that Sehome will win a tight battle to retain their team title.  The team battle will likely come down to whose #5 runs best...


1. Sehome
2. Squalicum
3. Bellingham
4.Ferndale
5. Anacortes
6. Meridian
7. Burlington
8. Blaine
9. Lynden Christian
10. Mount Baker
11. Lynden Christian
12. Nooksack Valley
13. Sedro Woolley

Week 2 Polls - 2A Boys and Girls

Girls

     1.      Sehome - won S. Whidbey by 37 points over 4A powers

     2.      Cheney - still no sign of their #2 & #3 & #5  returners who haven’t raced yet this season. Holland wins Mead Invite.

     3.      North Kitsap- won Salt Creek Invite

     4.      Burlington - beat Bellingham in tri-meet

     5.      Bellingham - Lost to Burlington in tri-meet

     6.      Capital -- 2nd place at Ft. Steilacoom

     7.      Cedarcrest- won mid-week meet

     8.      Lakewood -

     9.      Kingston - 4th at Salt Creek Invite

     10.  Deer Park - 4th at Moses Lake Invite

Others: Ephrata, Hockinson, Tumwater, Mark Morris, Sumner

Boys

     1.      Squalicum-beat Sehome by 3 pts at South Whidbey, 4^th place overall

     2.      Sehome-5^th at South Whidbey where top 5 teams were separated by 11 pts.

     3.      Bellingham

     4.      Deer Park-2nd at Moses Lake Invite, quite a ways behind University

     5.      Cedarcrest-won mid-week meet

     6.      West Valley-Yakima  -no posted competition this week

     7.      Selah-no meet

     8.      Cheney- ran at Mead Invite

     9.      Lindbergh – 13^th at Fort Steilacoom Invite

     10.  Tumwater

Others: Lakewood, WF West, Mark Morris, Capital

NWC Weekend Round-up: Girls

South Whidbey

Sehome, Squalicum, Mt. Baker, Nooksack, Anacortes, and Mt. Baker all competed at the South Whidbey Invitational.  Sehome ran their team in the top end Division 1 race, while the rest ran in the Division 2 race.  Brittany Gappa ran on her own in the Division 1 race while her team ran in the Division 2.

Division 1

Sehome easily outdistance a field stacked with 4A powers Jackson, Eastlake, and Eisenhower.  

Top 5

Sehome 45

Jackson 82

Eastlake 86

Eisenhower 86

West Point Grey 118

Sehome place 5 runners in the top 19 and 8 in the top 30.  Emily Pittis finished 3^rd overall, followed by a strong race from frosh Rebekah Oviatt who finished 7^th.  Sarah Huffman was 12^th, Abby Cybula 18^th, Dana Ringler 19^th, Zanna Sullivan 23^rd, Lindsay Hodgson 29^th and Jessa Clark 30^th.  Sehome had 5 in before anyone else had 3, and 6 in before anyone else’s 4^th.  Brittany Gappa waged a strong battle with Sally Larson of Cedar Park Christian for the individual battle.  Larson pulled away down the stretch for the victory, with Gappa finishing 2^nd.

Division 2

Mt. Baker had the top local team finish, placing 4^th, Squalicum was 6^th, and Nooksack Valley was 8^th.  Lynden was incomplete.  South Whidbey won the team title.  Rachael Hatcher had a strong race, finishing 3^rd in 20:42, her teammate Kelsie Nern was 8^th.   Lynden Freshman Grace Sauter had a fine invitational debut, finishing 11^th.  Claire Scott led Squalicum, finishing 13^th, and Alex Parson led Nooksack, finishing 16^th.

JV – Anacortes ran their girls in the JV race, led by Minta Demonte who finished 25^th.  Of note is that Sehome swept the top 7 spots in the JV Race, led by raced winner Natalie Anderson in 21:07.

Salt Creek Invite

Lynden Christian competed at the Salt Creek Invitational, finishing in 7^th place.  North Kitsap won the team title.  LC was led by Marissa Hielkema who finished 11^th.

NWC Weekend Round-up: Boys

South Whidbey

In what looks like a battle that will go on all year, Squalicum won round two slipping past Sehome by 3 points as the teams finished 4^th and 5^th in a top heavy Division 1 race.  The top 5 teams were separated by only 11 points, with Jackson winning the meet on a tiebreaker over Kamiak.

Jackson                        68

Kamiak                        68

Eisenhower                 72

Squalicum                   76

Sehome                       79

Eastlake                       129

Anacortes                    197

Meadowdale               251

Eastside Catholic        251

NWC Notes – after a slow first mile, Patrick Gibson took control, stretching things out to a 17 second victory.  Dillon Quintanna, running 3^rd for most of the second half of the race, ended up 4^th.  Conner Johnsen finished strong to move up to 5^th, Reed Henderson had another strong effort in 7^th, Chris Fredlund followed up his sophomore race victory at the Sehome Invite with a 10^th place finish, and Liam Toney finished 13^th – giving Sehome the strongest top 3 combo in the race.

Division 2 Race – this race was for smaller, more developing teams.  Schools in this category with an elite runner were allowed to run the elite runner in the Division 1 race and the rest of their varsity team in this race – which is what Mt. Baker did, running Quintanna in Division 1, and the rest of the team here.

The top NWC finisher in the Division 2 race was Shelby Miles of Mt. Baker in 6^th, followed closely by Stephen Diet of Nooksack in 7^th.  Nooksack was the top NWC finisher in the team results, finishing 4^th, Lynden led by Robby Swineford 12^th place individual finish was 9^th, and Mt. Baker finished 11^th – had they run Quintanna in this race it appears Baker would have finished 4^th.

Salt Creek Invite –

Lynden Christian traveled to the Salt Creek Invitational in Port Angeles, where they finished 5^th as a team and were the top 1A team.  The meet was won by Nathan Hale.

Top 5 teams:

Nathan Hale                33

Interlake                      94

Bainbridge                  97

Bellevue                      98

Lynden Christian        152

LC was led by Cody Velthuizen in 16^th place in 15:50.95. 

For those trying to compare times across invites or previous races, Salt Creek is listed as a 3.0 mile course, but it is well know that the course is a bit shorter and times are historically very fast. 

Boys Merge from Sehome Invite

Better late than never...the Merge from the Sehome Invite shows that it is going to likely be a tight battle all year long between the three schools from Bellingham.  Sehome edged out Squalicum and Bellingham this time around.  As previously discussed, merges aren't a super accurate picture of what would have happened if everyone raced together, but they do give an idea of where teams stand.  Runner's potentially most adversely affected by being in separate races are Chris Fredlund from Squalicum and Kirby Overman from Sehome, as they won their races it is is realistic to think that if they had been in the Senior race they both would have been pulled through to faster times and broken the top ten overall (all schools) on the day.

Sehome                       58

Squalicum                   63

Bellingham                  77

Lynden Christian        126

Meridian                      138

Burlington                   181

Blaine                          194

Ferndale                      196

Mt. Baker                    205

Nooksack Valley         247

2A Polls - Week of September 10th

Boys
1. Sehome – Won Sehome Invite in invitational and merged scoring over both Squalicum and Bellingham
2. Squalicum - behind Sehome and ahead of Bellingham at Sehome Invite
3. Bellingham
4. Deer Park
5. Cedarcrest
6. Selah
7. Lindbergh
8. Mark Morris
9. Lakewood
10. WF West 
Others - Capital, Colville, Ephrata, Tumwater

Girls
1. Sehome – 2^nd at Sehome Invitational – 4 pts behind Glacier Peak in Invitational scoring and 3 pts back in merged scoring.
2. Cheney – ran without #2 and #3 returners at Highlander
3. Bellingham - beat Burlington in invite scoring and merged scoring at Sehome Invite, 3rd overall.
4. Burlington -
5. North Kitsap
6. Mark Morris
7. Cedarcrest
8. Lakewood
9. Kingston
10. Deer Park
Others - Ephrata, Sumner

NWC Girls Merge from Sehome Invite

10 of the 13 schools from the NWC Conference participated in the Sehome Invitational on Saturday, with the only missing schools being Anacortes, Lynden, and Sedro Woolley.  Below is the merged scores for the Conference schools only - schools from outside the conference removed.  Of note - Sehome (running without #2 returner Kate Hannah) placed 5 in the top 9 and 13 in the top 32.  Bellingham edged Burlington, ranked 4th and 3rd respectively in the coaches' poll, by 6 points.  Boys NWC Merge to follow soon...

Sehome                       28

Bellingham                  74

Burlington                   80

Meridian                      133

Lynden Christian        141

Squalicum                   154

Ferndale                      164

Nooksack                    200

Mt. Baker                    Inc.

Blaine                          Inc.

1          Brittany Gappa           11:48.7            SQAL             12

2          Emily Pittis                 12:10.7            SEHO             10

3          RaynJoy Norton          12:36.1            BURL             11

4          Bekah Jensen              12:41.2            BHAM            12

5          Sarah Huffman           12:41.6            SEHO             11

6          Rebekah Oviatt           12:51.6            SEHO             9

7          Rachael Hatcher          12:52.2            MTBK             12

8          Zanna Sullivan            12:56.5            SEHO             9

9          Abby Cybula               12:56.7            SEHO             11

9          Olivia Capron              12:56.7            BURL             10

11        Mimi Meggison           12:57.7            MERD                        9

12        Makalee Latta             13:04.1            FERN              12

13        Marissa Hielkema        13:09.4            LNDC             11

14        Dana Ringler               13:10.7            SEHO             9

15        McKenzie Roque        13:12.3            MERD                        11

16        Lindsay Hodgson       13:13.5            SEHO             12

17        Nicole Burbank           13:15.7            BHAM            11

18        Maya Norton               13:16.1            BHAM            11

19        Regan Bervar              13:17.5            SEHO             11

20        Leah Veldhuisen         13:17.9            BHAM            10

21        Abby Walker               13:19.0            BHAM            10

22        Jessa Clark                  13:19.4            SEHO             10

23        Katie Walker               13:20.8            BHAM            12

24        Sydney Brown              13:21.5            BURL             12

25        Jayna Edmonds           13:30.2            MERD                        12

26        Meghan Templeton     13:31.3            BURL             11

27        Hayley Walker            13:33.4            BHAM            12

28        Madison Sullivan        13:36.8            SEHO             12

29        Christina Sosa             13:38.4            BURL             11

30        Devin Grahn               13:38.5            SEHO             9

31        Natalie Anderson        13:40.0            SEHO             12

32        Maya Iddins                13:47.1            SEHO             9

33        Katie Studebaker        13:47.2            BURL             11

34        Jillian Anderson          13:48.4            FERN              9

35        Ciera Gordon              13:52.2            BURL             11

Sehome Boys win Sehome Invite

The Sehome Boys won the Sehome Invitational on Saturday.  They won in both the Invite Scoring which utilizes the McDowell Scoring System and via the Merged Score - see descriptions of methods in post below.

The meet was dominated by the Senior Boys Race which had the top 12 times on the day.  Squalicum Senior Patrick Gibson won the Senior Boys Race and broke the Scott Caryle's course record by seven seconds, running 9:55 - see notes in previous post about the slow conditions of the course, making Gibson's effort that much more impressive.  Sehome's top 4 of Reed Henderson, Conner Johnsen, Liam Toney, and Kirby Overman helped power them to the victory.

Invite Scoring via the McDowell Scoring System
1st - Sehome 48
2nd - Kamiak 62
3rd - Squalicum 65

Sehome also comfortably won the combined boys and girls trophy for the meet with 74 points, outdistancing second place Bellingham by 52 points.

Merged Scoring:

1          Sehome                       92

2          Squalicum                   113

3          Kamiak                        123

4          Bellingham                  131

5          Newport                      158

6          Lynden Christian        256

7          Glacier Peak                280

8          Meridian                      308

9          Aberdeen                    333

10        Kingston                     353

11        Oak Harbor                 371

12        Shorewood                  393

13        Lakewood                   413

14        Burlington-Edison      462

15        Arlington                     467

16        Ferndale                      474

17        Meadowdale               480

18        Cascade-Everett          486

19        Cedar Park Christian   490

20        Mount Vernon                        492

21        Everett                                    518

22        Blaine                          540

23        Archbishop Murphy    551

24        Mt. Baker                    558

25        Marysville-Getchell     615

26        Marysville-Pilchuck    657

27        Port Townsend            684

28        South Whidbey           694

29        Nooksack Valley         715

30        Sultan                          909

Glacier Peak Girls Edge Sehome at Sehome Invite

The Glacier Peak Girls just squeaked by Sehome at the Sehome Invitational Saturday.  They narrowly beat them in the Invitational Scoring and in the merged results.  The Invitational Scoring utilizes the McDowell Scoring System - using three displacers per race and taking each schools top finisher from each class race and their next two best finishes overall.  Merged scoring can always be a little suspect as runners are running against different competition. In this meet, this seemed to be more of a detriment to Sehome than Glacier Peak, as Sehome Sophomore Emily Pittis ran away with the Sophomore race with no competition and ran the 6th best time of the day behind the 5 top girls from the Senior race.  One has to believe she would have been a couple places higher overall if she had been able to compete against those girls.  Also of note - top runners missing from each school: Sehome's was missing their projected #2 runner Kate Hannah due to ACT Testing and Glacier Peak was missing their # 3 runner Marlee Rothschild due to a slightly sprained ankle during the week - both very similar runners as they ran nearly identical times at the State Meet last year.

Of note, the course ran very slow this year.  The course is normally slow as it is as it is very technical.  The heat this year, combined with fresh gravel across a parking lot and a lot of fresh dirt laid down on trails resulted in a really slow course.

Invite Scoring Top 3 Teams via McDowell Scoring System
1. Glacier Peak - 21
2. Sehome - 26
3.  Bellingham - 58

Merged Scoring - Including only top 7 runners and throwing out any runners not on teams with at least 5 runners total:

1          Glacier Peak:               61

2          Sehome:                      64

3          Bellingham:                 138

4          Burlington:                  153

5          Newport                      192

6          Arlington:                    242

7          Cedar Park Christian   257

8          Lakewood                   282

9          Kingston                     284

10        Marysville-Getchell     311

11        Kamiak                        313

12        Meridian                      332

13        Lynden Christian        337

14        Oak Harbor                 386

15        Squalicum                   401

16        Ferndale                      419

17        Meadowdale               439

18        Shorewood                  455

19        Cascade-Everett:         466

20        Mount Vernon             522

21        Nooksack                    537

22        Everett                          546

Sehome, Meridian, Sedro Wooley Recap

This location of this meet was reschedule to Sehome High School for numerous reasons.  A 3 loop, two mile course was used.

Boys - Sehome dominated from the start with Reed Henderson leading Sehome Pack of three early, which also included Conner Johnsen and Kirby Overman.  They ran together throughout the race and continuously stretched their lead.  Johnsen kicked at the end for the victory.  Liam Toney from Sehome ran alone in 4th the entire race and Josh Schacht from Sehome outkicked Kelby Todd of Meridian to secure the 15 point total for Sehome. Top Frosh was Sehome's Colton Johnsen in 18th.  Sehome placed 8 runners under 11 minutes and 22 under 12 minutes.


Girls - Meridian Freshmen Mimi Meggison led through the first loop with Sehome's Emily Pittis on her shoulder. Pittis soon took the lead on lap 2 and stretched it out significantly on the final loop.  Sehome freshman Rebekah Oviatt closed hard for 3rd, followed by four more teammates (Kate Hannah, Sarah Huffman, and Freshmen Dana Ringler and Zanna Sullivan.  Sehome placed 10 girls under 13 minutes and 23 under 14 minutes. Sehome placed 7 frosh in the top 19 in what appeared to be a conservative race with the Sehome Invite on the horizon.

Sehome Invitational Preview

The Sehome Invitational is this Saturday at Civic Stadium in Bellingham.  33 teams are registered, including most of the Northwest Conference.  Two big additions this year are the Glacier Peak Girls and Aberdeen, featuring Poli Baltazar - last year's 2nd place individual finisher in 2A.  Should be a great Invite.

Hopefully more to come, but below is a quick preview of Runner's to Watch in each race - the meet is run by class races.  It is an ACT Testing weekend so there will be some key absences.  Known absences for ACT's or other various reasons are listed.

The meet is scored by taking your top finisher in each race and your next two best finisher from any race.  Each team may have up to 3 runners count as displacers in each race.

Schedule

10:00am          Junior Varsity Boys Race

10:25am          Freshmen Girls Race

10:50am          Freshmen Boys Race

11:15am          Sophomore Girls Race

11:40am          Sophomore Boys Race

12:05pm         Junior Girls Race

12:30pm         Junior Boys Race

12:55pm         Senior Girls Race

1:20pm           Senior Boys Race

1:55pm           Community Open Race - $10 Entry Fee

Freshmen Boys To Watch: Colton Johnsen, Sehome; Riley Allsop, Sehome; Sam Gillman, Bellingham; Aaron Martinez, Aberdeen; Andrew Muljat, Sehome

Freshmen Girls to Watch: Mimi Meggison, Meridian; Rebekah Oviatt, Sehome; Zanna Sullivan, Sehome; Lizzy Friesen, Sehome; Dana Ringler, Sehome; Devin Grahn, Sehome;

Sophomore Boys to Watch: John Rodeheffer, Oak Harbor; Kirby Overman, Sehome; Douglas Davis, Lakewood; Isaac Wadhwani, Terry Fox; Jon Wiley, Lynden Christian; Langston Engle, Sehome; Zane Markosian, Sehome; Dakota Powers, Oak Harbor; Collin Magnusson, Meridian

Sophomore Girls to Watch: Emily Pittis, Sehome; Katherine Dittmann, Glacier Peak; Tiana Roe, Kamiak; Tera Beyerlein, Kamiak; Leah Veldhuisen, Bellingham; Olivia Capron, Burlington-Edison; Abby Walker, Bellingham; Stephanie Schlimmer, Sedro Woolley;

Junior Boys to Watch: Chris Fredlund, Squalicum; Nick Gallaher, Squalicum; Brian Chmelik, Bellingham; Alex Mitchell, Mount Vernon; Nathan Wadhwani, Terry Fox; Jared Alskog, Arlington; Jerry Behrens, Kamiak; Keenan Stephens, Shorewood; Simon McQuire, Bellingham

Junior Girls to Watch: Marissa Hielkema, Lynden Christian; Megan Davis, Glacier Peak; Sarah Huffman, Sehome; RaynJoy Norton, Burlington-Edison; Annie Roberts, Kingston; Abby Cybula, Sehome; Nicole Burbank, Bellingham; Regan Bervar, Sehome; Ciera Gordon, Burlington-Edison; Meghan Templeton, Burlington-Edison

Senior Boys to Watch: Patrick Gibson, Squalicum; Poli Baltazar, Aberdeen; Conner Johnsen, Sehome; Tom Bradley, Sehome; Reed Henderson, Sehome; Dillon Quintana, Mt. Baker; Joe Charbonneau, Bellingham; Connor Jungkuntz, Ferndale; Logan Jungkuntz, Ferndale; Dylan Dubuque, Squalicum; Paris Speidel, Bellingham; Ryan Bradford, Kamiak; Liam Toney, Sehome

Senior Girls to Watch: Amy-Eloise Neale, Glacier Peak; Katie Bianchini, Glacier Peak; Brittany Gappa, Squalicum; Sally Larson, Cedar Park Christian; Marlee Rothschild, Glacier Peak; Rachel Hatcher, Mt. Baker; Bekah Jensen, Bellingham; Jessica Spray, Newport; Rachael Lefstad, Marysville-Getchell; Haley Suarez, Meadowdale;  Lillianna Stelling, South Whidbey.  A couple key girls missing from this race will be Kate Hannah from Sehome and Sydney Gray from Meridian.

2A Preseason Polls

2A Boys

1          Squalicum – bring everyone back from last year's team, including defending champion Patrick Gibson.  Dubuque back healthy after injuries curtailed his 2011 season. 

2          Sehome – 5 back from last year’s state team.  Led by Seniors Conner Johnsen and Reed Henderson.  Look for sophomore Kirby Overman to make a big jump. 

3          Bellingham – Didn’t make it to state last year for same reason as Burlington Girls above – really slow first mile and a half threw them off and they didn’t react well. Led by seniors Joe Charbenneau (9:28 3200m) and Paris Speidel (1:55 800m).

4          Deer Park – Good depth but won’t have the same powerful 1-2 punch as last year.  Led by senior Daniel Amann – 6^th place in 2011.

5          Cedarcrest – same as Deer Park, losing one of their strong top 2 will be hard to make up for.  Led by Junior Logan Orndorg.

6          Selah

7          Mark Morris

8          Lindberg

9          Tumwater

10        WF West

           

Others: Cheney, Colville, Lakewood

2A Girls

1          Cheney – Bring back 5 from State.  With incoming freshmen, Sehome may be ahead of them  - thus the difference in the All Classification Power Poll.  But as defending champs and things being close they deserve the #1 ranking in the 2A poll until there are freshmen performances to look at.  Led by 2A title contender Sanne Holland.

2          Sehome – 5 back from 2^nd place team. A very strong freshmen class. Led by defending individual champion Emily Pittis and Senior Kate Hannah.

3          Burlington – missed state last year after an off meet at Districts when the race went out at a crawl, causing some chaos. A very good team led by Sophomore Olivia Capron.  Looking to earn their first state birth in the history of the program. 

4          Bellingham – were better last year than post season performance showed as they had excessive injuries last year.  Led by Junior Bekah Jensen.

5          North Kitsap – led by last year’s 2^nd place state finisher and multi-time state hurdle champion Reagan Colyer.

6          Cedarcrest

7          Mark Morris

8          Kingston

9          Deer Park

10        Ephrata

Others: Lakewood, Hockinson, Sumner

All Classifications Pre-Season Power Poll - Boys

   1.      North Central – All seven back from team that finished 7^th at Nike Team Nationals.  Led by Keith Williams and Kai Wilmot.  Senior heavy team should make a run at a national title.

   2.      Seattle Prep – just missed out on a trip to Nike Team Nationals last year.  Bring back 6 runners under from last year’s state team – with all 6 running under 17 minutes on the state course.  Led by super junior Joe Hardy.

   3.      Gig Harbor – last year’s team was extremely senior heavy, but the three top runners they do bring back can line up with anyone’s .  Key will be development of their 4 and 5.  Health appears critical as depth is limited. 

   4.      Eisenhower – strong despite losing top 3 from last year’s 2^nd place 4A team.  Led by Schreiber and Dominguez.

   5.      Mount Spokane - team missed the podium on a tiebreaker last year.  Bring back 5 from that squad, all under 16:50 on state course.

   6.      Kamiakin – they may have lost Armstrong, but the Braves were an extremely deep team last year and have plenty of runners ready to step up and contribute.

   7.      Tahoma – Bring back top four from last year’s 8^th place 4A team.  Need someone to step up at # 1if they want to secure a podium finish.

   8.      Jackson – only three back from last year’s 3^rd place team, but should have depth to fill in.  Led by super soph Roe.

   9.      Garfield – 5 back from last year’s 6^th place 4A squad. 

   10.  Squalicum – injuries held them back last year, but healthy again, this is a talented squad.  Led by defending 2A champion Gibson and 1:56 half miler Fredlund.  Look for a healthy Dubuque to come back strong after last year’s injuries.

   11.  Sehome – Led by last year’s 5^th place finisher Johnsen and 1:53 half miler Henderson.  Overman appears to have made a significant jump.  The question entering the year is at #5.

   12.  Central Valley – 4 back from last year’s 4^th place 4A team.

   13.  Kamiak – Top 6 back from last year’s 9^th place 4A team.  If everyone progresses, they could end up on the podium at state.

   14.  Mead – need BIG help at 4 and 5, but with their front runners, they will get the benefit of the doubt early

   15.  Ferris – nothing on paper indicates this, but with great history of developing athletes,  like Mead, they will get the benefit of the doubt.

    Others: Nathan Hale, Lake Stevens, Bellingham, Skyline, Redmond, Lewis & Clark

All Classifications Pre-Season Power Poll - Girls

UPDATED 8-21-2012 to reflect new knowledge about Camas

Okay, pre-season polls are always difficult, especially an all classification one.  You have to account for things you do know, but there are plenty of surprises you do not know about. For Example - Know that Bellarmine's Miranda Ross is turning out, but do not know if Kamiakin's Megan Beauchene will finally make the jump to x-c, a move that would bump Kamiakin into the top 10. Know about talented incoming freshmen at Eisenhower, Sehome, and Central Kitsap, but unaware of others that are likely going to benefit other teams.  But, still fun to put together the information you do know and to make a best guess.  Looked at last year's state performances, accounted for incoming freshmen I know about, looked at some track times but not a lot, looked at some summer camp races and summer time trials, likely didn't account for many off state performances, talked to several coaches across the region, etc...

     1.      Glacier Peak – Difficult not to place GP #1.  Top 4 and 6 of 7 back from team that finished 16^th at Nike Nationals.  Eloise-Neale / Bianchini 1-2 punch cannot be touched by any other team in the state.
     2.      Camas – defending 3A champs move up to 4A.    Led my Sophomore standout Efraimson.  Updated to reflect progress of their #4 during track season (ran 11:40 for 3200m) and the inclusion of a new freshman.

     3.      Bellarmine Prep – Additional of 2:15 / 5:13 Miranda Ross bolsters squad that was already bringing back 6 from 2^nd place State team.  Look for strong improvement from Derby in her second year of cross country. Don’t be surprised if they are able to challenge GP by the end of the season.

     4.      Sehome – Strong incoming Freshmen squad adds to team already returning 5 of 7 from 2^nd Place State team.  Led by defending 2A champ Pittis, expect team to be hungry after their 5 year state title streak was ended last year.

     5.      Tahoma – lose only their #4 from last year’s state championship team.  On paper have issues at #5, but one new runner away from being a strong threat to repeat at 4A.

     6.      Cheney – Defending 2A Champs return 5 of 7, led by individual title contender Holland.

     7.      Eisenhower – A talented incoming freshman adds to a team already returning 5 from their 5^th place 4A squad.

     8.      Redmond – a strong 1-2 punch with LeGresley and Dunn, returning 5 runners from 3^rd place 4A squad.  If they have any new runners to help with their issues at #4 and 5, could be extremely dangerous.

     

     9.      Jackson – Return 6 of 7 from 6^th place 4A team. 

     10.  Central Kitsap – incoming freshman bolsters squad returning 6 of 7 from 13^th place 4A team.  Look for big improvement from Christen who finished 5^th in 10:57 in the 4A State 3200m.

     11.  Snohomish – 5 of 7 back from 7^th place 4A team.  Great depth, but lack a strong 1 and 2.

     12.  Burlington-Edison – okay, this is my surprise pick.  B-E was likely the #3 tam in 2A last year but were thrown off by a tactical district race that went out at a snail’s pace, and didn’t qualify for State.  Return 6 of 7 from last year’s team, including sophomore Olivia Capron.  Word is that 11:35 3200m runner RaynJoy Norton is turning out for the first time, making this a really solid squad.

     13.  Interlake – moving back to 3A.  Return 5 of 7 from 3^rd place 2A squad. 

     14.  Lakeside – Return 6 of 7 from 6^th place 3A team.

     15.  Central Valley – Top 3, and 5 of 7 back from 8^th place 4A team.

Others – Bellingham, Shadle Park, Peninsula, Liberty-Issaquah, Prairie, Richland

2A District 1 Preseason Projections

Preseason 2A District 1 Projections.  It is not yet know whether the District will get 3 or 4 berths to state this year.

Boys

1          Squalicum                   53

2          Sehome                       58

3          Bellingham                  62

4          Cedarcrest                   104

5          Lakewood                   167

6          Anacortes                    181

7          Burlington                   191

8          Archbishop Murphy    217

9          Lake Wasington          220

10        Sammamish                 229

11        Sedro Woolley            248

12        Granite Falls                264

13        Lynden                        323

14        Sultan                          363

Girls

1          Sehome                       27

2          Bellingham                  70

3          Burlington                   72

4          Cedarcrest                   106

5          Lakewood                   179

6          Squalicum                   195

7          Anacortes                    198

8          Lynden                        217

9          Sedro-Woolley            224

10        Sammamish                 254

11        Granite Falls                284

12        Archbishop Murphy    286

13        Lake Washington        295

14        Sultan                          314

Conference Power Rankings with Scores

Okay, I was asked for projected scores for the Conference Power Rankings.  Obviously this is very rough as you are estimating new kids coming in, moving runners from JV races to the varsity race, and estimating improvement of runners who had a good spring or that you know have had a good summer.  This is especially rough for mid to back of the pack teams, as one runner making a jump can have a significant impact.  Attaching scores also undoes some of my moving teams up or down a spot or two based on miscellaneous information I have heard.  One example of this would be the Blaine boys who will appear a little lower here than in my initial post.  My initial post was based on information that they have recruited some boys out and have been training well.  But, with no names and no info on these runners, I can't project them in for scores.  That being said, here goes:

Boys

1          Squalicum                   55

2          Sehome                       58

3          Bellingham                  62

4          Ferndale                      148

5          L. Christian                 166

6          Anacortes                    183

7          Burlington                   191

8          Meridian                      223

9          Blaine                          258

10        Mt. Baker                    259

11        Sedro-W                      262

12        Nooksack                    297

13        Lynden                        332

Girls

1          Sehome                       31

2          Bellingham                  75

3          Burlington                   80

4          Meridian                      157

5          L. Christian                 178

6          Mt. Baker                    185

7          Nooksack                    209

8          Squal                           224

9          Lynden                        234

10        Ferndale                      235

11        Sedro-W                      258

12        Anacortes                    265

13        Blaine                          Inc.

Preseason Northwest Conference Power Rankings

As always, preseason rankings are what they are – preseason rankings.  This means last year’s x-c performances and this past Spring’s track performances are the main factors considered.  Limited information is known on incoming runners, but what information is known is used.  Incoming frosh play less of a role on the boys side, but this year could be an exception as both Sehome and Bellingham have some quality freshmen entering their programs. At this point, these rankings are based mainly from returning x-c performances.  Hunches and speculation have been limited.  These rankings are a prediction of where the teams will be at the beginning of the season.  They are not a prediction of what will happen at the end of the season.  Keep in mind that with their move to 4A, Mount Vernon has moved to the WESCO Conference.

Boys

Expect the three schools from Bellingham to battle all year long.  They could be the best three teams in 2A.  Bellingham may not show up on some early State rankings as due to a strong District 1, they did not make the state meet last year.  Don’t sleep on Blaine at the 1A level.

     1.      Squalicum – return full top 7, led by defending 2A champion Gibson. Health may be key.

     2.      Sehome – return 5 of 7, a couple quality incoming frosh. Strong 1-2 with Johnsen and Henderson, with Overman looking to make it a strong three.

     3.      Bellingham – return 5 of 7, quality incoming frosh. Strong track seasons for Charboneau and Speidel.

     4.      Ferndale – Jungkuntz twins powerful 1-2 punch, can they build team around them?

     5.      Lynden Christian – return all 7 from 5^th place 1A state team, senior laden

     6.      Anacortes – bring back 4 varsity seniors

     7.      Burlington – Zabelka leads young squad

     8.      Blaine – led by Bradley and Fontes, could surprise. Bradley should contend for 1A individual title

     9.      Meridian – 5 of 7 back from 10^th place 1A State squad

    10.  Mt. Baker – move to 1A and a healthy Quintana should help

    11.  Sedro-Woolley – young squad looking for a front runner

    12.  Nooksack Valley – like Sedro Woolley, a young squad looking for a front runner with Beard’s graduation

    13.  Lynden – look for improvement as team lost only two members to graduation

Girls

Sehome is an early 2A state favorite, along with Cheney.  Bellingham and Burlington both bring back strong teams that should also have the state podium in their sights.  Look for Meridian to make a serious challenge at the 1A state level and for Mt. Baker to take advantage of their new 1A status.

  

     1.      Sehome – 5 of top 7 back including defending 2A champion Pittis, along with an infusion of freshmen talent

     2.      Bellingham – 6 of 7 back from last year’s 4^th place state team

     3.      Burlington – may be overlooked in many preseason poll’s as an off district meet in a deep district cost them a state berth last year.

     4.      Meridian – an improved Gray combined with a stand-out incoming freshman makes them very dangerous at the 1A level.

     5.      Mt. Baker – move to 1A should help, look for Baker to earn a state bid

     6.      Lynden Christian – Return 6 of 7 from 8^th place state team, led by Hielkema

     7.      Squalicum – Individual title contender Gappa, hoping to get some help around her

     8.      Nooksack Valley – 6 of 7 return from 7^th place state team

     9.      Ferndale – 6 of top 7 return from team that made big strides last year

    10.  Sedro Woolley – 6 of top 7 back from young team.  Move to 2A should be helpful for team’s   development / confidence

    11.  Lynden – All 7 girls back from last year’s team

    12.  Anacortes – Senior O’Clock leads a young team

    13.  Blaine – Return 2 runners from last’s team, led by sophomore Kiele