Okay, pre-season polls are always difficult, especially an all classification one. You have to account for things you do know, but there are plenty of surprises you do not know about. For Example - Know that Bellarmine's Miranda Ross is turning out, but do not know if Kamiakin's Megan Beauchene will finally make the jump to x-c, a move that would bump Kamiakin into the top 10. Know about talented incoming freshmen at Eisenhower, Sehome, and Central Kitsap, but unaware of others that are likely going to benefit other teams. But, still fun to put together the information you do know and to make a best guess. Looked at last year's state performances, accounted for incoming freshmen I know about, looked at some track times but not a lot, looked at some summer camp races and summer time trials, likely didn't account for many off state performances, talked to several coaches across the region, etc...
1.
Glacier Peak – Difficult not to place GP
#1. Top 4 and 6 of 7 back from team that
finished 16th at Nike Nationals.
Eloise-Neale / Bianchini 1-2 punch cannot be touched by any other team
in the state.
2. Camas – defending 3A champs move up to 4A. Led my Sophomore standout Efraimson. Updated to reflect progress of their #4 during track season (ran 11:40 for 3200m) and the inclusion of a new freshman.
2. Camas – defending 3A champs move up to 4A. Led my Sophomore standout Efraimson. Updated to reflect progress of their #4 during track season (ran 11:40 for 3200m) and the inclusion of a new freshman.
3.
Bellarmine Prep – Additional of 2:15 / 5:13
Miranda Ross bolsters squad that was already bringing back 6 from 2nd
place State team. Look for strong
improvement from Derby in her second year of cross country. Don’t be surprised
if they are able to challenge GP by the end of the season.
4.
Sehome – Strong incoming Freshmen squad adds to
team already returning 5 of 7 from 2nd Place State team. Led by defending 2A champ Pittis, expect team
to be hungry after their 5 year state title streak was ended last year.
5.
Tahoma – lose only their #4 from last year’s
state championship team. On paper have
issues at #5, but one new runner away from being a strong threat to repeat at
4A.
6.
Cheney – Defending 2A Champs return 5 of 7, led
by individual title contender Holland.
7.
Eisenhower – A talented incoming freshman adds
to a team already returning 5 from their 5th place 4A squad.
8.
Redmond – a strong 1-2 punch with LeGresley and
Dunn, returning 5 runners from 3rd place 4A squad. If they have any new runners to help with
their issues at #4 and 5, could be extremely dangerous.
9.
Jackson – Return 6 of 7 from 6th
place 4A team.
10. Central Kitsap – incoming freshman bolsters squad returning 6 of 7 from 13th
place 4A team. Look for big improvement
from Christen who finished 5th in 10:57 in the 4A State 3200m.
11. Snohomish
– 5 of 7 back from 7th place 4A team. Great depth, but lack a strong 1 and 2.
12. Burlington-Edison
– okay, this is my surprise pick. B-E
was likely the #3 tam in 2A last year but were thrown off by a tactical
district race that went out at a snail’s pace, and didn’t qualify for
State. Return 6 of 7 from last year’s
team, including sophomore Olivia Capron.
Word is that 11:35 3200m runner RaynJoy Norton is turning out for the
first time, making this a really solid squad.
13. Interlake
– moving back to 3A. Return 5 of 7 from
3rd place 2A squad.
14. Lakeside
– Return 6 of 7 from 6th place 3A team.
15. Central
Valley – Top 3, and 5 of 7 back from 8th place 4A team.
Others – Bellingham, Shadle Park, Peninsula,
Liberty-Issaquah, Prairie, Richland
FYI regarding Camas: They should have a pretty solid #4 and 5 as well. Cami Parsons ran 11:40 in track, she should be right with Megan Napier (their #3). And they have an incoming freshman that ran 2:29/5:26 this spring and was second in their middle school district XC meet (8:51 to Union's Cassie McKinney 8:45, which favorably compares to Union's Alexis Fuller 8:33 and Camas' Alexa Efraimson 8:44 the year before).
ReplyDeleteI haven't talked to Coach Hickey about how the summer has gone, but I'm thinking they are the second best team in the state (behind Glacier Peak) going into the season.
Yes, with that info, they would definitely move up to # 2 or #3. Their big question based off returners was at #5 as they went really far back. But, a strong incoming frosh should immediately solve that problem. The 4A race should be a fun one this year with Bellarmine, Camas, and Tahoma. I'll probably update this before competition starts, as info trickles in over the first couple weeks...
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