2A Preseason Polls

2A Boys

1          Squalicum – bring everyone back from last year's team, including defending champion Patrick Gibson.  Dubuque back healthy after injuries curtailed his 2011 season. 

2          Sehome – 5 back from last year’s state team.  Led by Seniors Conner Johnsen and Reed Henderson.  Look for sophomore Kirby Overman to make a big jump. 

3          Bellingham – Didn’t make it to state last year for same reason as Burlington Girls above – really slow first mile and a half threw them off and they didn’t react well. Led by seniors Joe Charbenneau (9:28 3200m) and Paris Speidel (1:55 800m).

4          Deer Park – Good depth but won’t have the same powerful 1-2 punch as last year.  Led by senior Daniel Amann – 6^th place in 2011.

5          Cedarcrest – same as Deer Park, losing one of their strong top 2 will be hard to make up for.  Led by Junior Logan Orndorg.

6          Selah

7          Mark Morris

8          Lindberg

9          Tumwater

10        WF West

           

Others: Cheney, Colville, Lakewood

2A Girls

1          Cheney – Bring back 5 from State.  With incoming freshmen, Sehome may be ahead of them  - thus the difference in the All Classification Power Poll.  But as defending champs and things being close they deserve the #1 ranking in the 2A poll until there are freshmen performances to look at.  Led by 2A title contender Sanne Holland.

2          Sehome – 5 back from 2^nd place team. A very strong freshmen class. Led by defending individual champion Emily Pittis and Senior Kate Hannah.

3          Burlington – missed state last year after an off meet at Districts when the race went out at a crawl, causing some chaos. A very good team led by Sophomore Olivia Capron.  Looking to earn their first state birth in the history of the program. 

4          Bellingham – were better last year than post season performance showed as they had excessive injuries last year.  Led by Junior Bekah Jensen.

5          North Kitsap – led by last year’s 2^nd place state finisher and multi-time state hurdle champion Reagan Colyer.

6          Cedarcrest

7          Mark Morris

8          Kingston

9          Deer Park

10        Ephrata

Others: Lakewood, Hockinson, Sumner

All Classifications Pre-Season Power Poll - Boys

   1.      North Central – All seven back from team that finished 7^th at Nike Team Nationals.  Led by Keith Williams and Kai Wilmot.  Senior heavy team should make a run at a national title.

   2.      Seattle Prep – just missed out on a trip to Nike Team Nationals last year.  Bring back 6 runners under from last year’s state team – with all 6 running under 17 minutes on the state course.  Led by super junior Joe Hardy.

   3.      Gig Harbor – last year’s team was extremely senior heavy, but the three top runners they do bring back can line up with anyone’s .  Key will be development of their 4 and 5.  Health appears critical as depth is limited. 

   4.      Eisenhower – strong despite losing top 3 from last year’s 2^nd place 4A team.  Led by Schreiber and Dominguez.

   5.      Mount Spokane - team missed the podium on a tiebreaker last year.  Bring back 5 from that squad, all under 16:50 on state course.

   6.      Kamiakin – they may have lost Armstrong, but the Braves were an extremely deep team last year and have plenty of runners ready to step up and contribute.

   7.      Tahoma – Bring back top four from last year’s 8^th place 4A team.  Need someone to step up at # 1if they want to secure a podium finish.

   8.      Jackson – only three back from last year’s 3^rd place team, but should have depth to fill in.  Led by super soph Roe.

   9.      Garfield – 5 back from last year’s 6^th place 4A squad. 

   10.  Squalicum – injuries held them back last year, but healthy again, this is a talented squad.  Led by defending 2A champion Gibson and 1:56 half miler Fredlund.  Look for a healthy Dubuque to come back strong after last year’s injuries.

   11.  Sehome – Led by last year’s 5^th place finisher Johnsen and 1:53 half miler Henderson.  Overman appears to have made a significant jump.  The question entering the year is at #5.

   12.  Central Valley – 4 back from last year’s 4^th place 4A team.

   13.  Kamiak – Top 6 back from last year’s 9^th place 4A team.  If everyone progresses, they could end up on the podium at state.

   14.  Mead – need BIG help at 4 and 5, but with their front runners, they will get the benefit of the doubt early

   15.  Ferris – nothing on paper indicates this, but with great history of developing athletes,  like Mead, they will get the benefit of the doubt.

    Others: Nathan Hale, Lake Stevens, Bellingham, Skyline, Redmond, Lewis & Clark

All Classifications Pre-Season Power Poll - Girls

UPDATED 8-21-2012 to reflect new knowledge about Camas

Okay, pre-season polls are always difficult, especially an all classification one.  You have to account for things you do know, but there are plenty of surprises you do not know about. For Example - Know that Bellarmine's Miranda Ross is turning out, but do not know if Kamiakin's Megan Beauchene will finally make the jump to x-c, a move that would bump Kamiakin into the top 10. Know about talented incoming freshmen at Eisenhower, Sehome, and Central Kitsap, but unaware of others that are likely going to benefit other teams.  But, still fun to put together the information you do know and to make a best guess.  Looked at last year's state performances, accounted for incoming freshmen I know about, looked at some track times but not a lot, looked at some summer camp races and summer time trials, likely didn't account for many off state performances, talked to several coaches across the region, etc...

     1.      Glacier Peak – Difficult not to place GP #1.  Top 4 and 6 of 7 back from team that finished 16^th at Nike Nationals.  Eloise-Neale / Bianchini 1-2 punch cannot be touched by any other team in the state.
     2.      Camas – defending 3A champs move up to 4A.    Led my Sophomore standout Efraimson.  Updated to reflect progress of their #4 during track season (ran 11:40 for 3200m) and the inclusion of a new freshman.

     3.      Bellarmine Prep – Additional of 2:15 / 5:13 Miranda Ross bolsters squad that was already bringing back 6 from 2^nd place State team.  Look for strong improvement from Derby in her second year of cross country. Don’t be surprised if they are able to challenge GP by the end of the season.

     4.      Sehome – Strong incoming Freshmen squad adds to team already returning 5 of 7 from 2^nd Place State team.  Led by defending 2A champ Pittis, expect team to be hungry after their 5 year state title streak was ended last year.

     5.      Tahoma – lose only their #4 from last year’s state championship team.  On paper have issues at #5, but one new runner away from being a strong threat to repeat at 4A.

     6.      Cheney – Defending 2A Champs return 5 of 7, led by individual title contender Holland.

     7.      Eisenhower – A talented incoming freshman adds to a team already returning 5 from their 5^th place 4A squad.

     8.      Redmond – a strong 1-2 punch with LeGresley and Dunn, returning 5 runners from 3^rd place 4A squad.  If they have any new runners to help with their issues at #4 and 5, could be extremely dangerous.

     

     9.      Jackson – Return 6 of 7 from 6^th place 4A team. 

     10.  Central Kitsap – incoming freshman bolsters squad returning 6 of 7 from 13^th place 4A team.  Look for big improvement from Christen who finished 5^th in 10:57 in the 4A State 3200m.

     11.  Snohomish – 5 of 7 back from 7^th place 4A team.  Great depth, but lack a strong 1 and 2.

     12.  Burlington-Edison – okay, this is my surprise pick.  B-E was likely the #3 tam in 2A last year but were thrown off by a tactical district race that went out at a snail’s pace, and didn’t qualify for State.  Return 6 of 7 from last year’s team, including sophomore Olivia Capron.  Word is that 11:35 3200m runner RaynJoy Norton is turning out for the first time, making this a really solid squad.

     13.  Interlake – moving back to 3A.  Return 5 of 7 from 3^rd place 2A squad. 

     14.  Lakeside – Return 6 of 7 from 6^th place 3A team.

     15.  Central Valley – Top 3, and 5 of 7 back from 8^th place 4A team.

Others – Bellingham, Shadle Park, Peninsula, Liberty-Issaquah, Prairie, Richland

2A District 1 Preseason Projections

Preseason 2A District 1 Projections.  It is not yet know whether the District will get 3 or 4 berths to state this year.

Boys

1          Squalicum                   53

2          Sehome                       58

3          Bellingham                  62

4          Cedarcrest                   104

5          Lakewood                   167

6          Anacortes                    181

7          Burlington                   191

8          Archbishop Murphy    217

9          Lake Wasington          220

10        Sammamish                 229

11        Sedro Woolley            248

12        Granite Falls                264

13        Lynden                        323

14        Sultan                          363

Girls

1          Sehome                       27

2          Bellingham                  70

3          Burlington                   72

4          Cedarcrest                   106

5          Lakewood                   179

6          Squalicum                   195

7          Anacortes                    198

8          Lynden                        217

9          Sedro-Woolley            224

10        Sammamish                 254

11        Granite Falls                284

12        Archbishop Murphy    286

13        Lake Washington        295

14        Sultan                          314

Conference Power Rankings with Scores

Okay, I was asked for projected scores for the Conference Power Rankings.  Obviously this is very rough as you are estimating new kids coming in, moving runners from JV races to the varsity race, and estimating improvement of runners who had a good spring or that you know have had a good summer.  This is especially rough for mid to back of the pack teams, as one runner making a jump can have a significant impact.  Attaching scores also undoes some of my moving teams up or down a spot or two based on miscellaneous information I have heard.  One example of this would be the Blaine boys who will appear a little lower here than in my initial post.  My initial post was based on information that they have recruited some boys out and have been training well.  But, with no names and no info on these runners, I can't project them in for scores.  That being said, here goes:

Boys

1          Squalicum                   55

2          Sehome                       58

3          Bellingham                  62

4          Ferndale                      148

5          L. Christian                 166

6          Anacortes                    183

7          Burlington                   191

8          Meridian                      223

9          Blaine                          258

10        Mt. Baker                    259

11        Sedro-W                      262

12        Nooksack                    297

13        Lynden                        332

Girls

1          Sehome                       31

2          Bellingham                  75

3          Burlington                   80

4          Meridian                      157

5          L. Christian                 178

6          Mt. Baker                    185

7          Nooksack                    209

8          Squal                           224

9          Lynden                        234

10        Ferndale                      235

11        Sedro-W                      258

12        Anacortes                    265

13        Blaine                          Inc.

Preseason Northwest Conference Power Rankings

As always, preseason rankings are what they are – preseason rankings.  This means last year’s x-c performances and this past Spring’s track performances are the main factors considered.  Limited information is known on incoming runners, but what information is known is used.  Incoming frosh play less of a role on the boys side, but this year could be an exception as both Sehome and Bellingham have some quality freshmen entering their programs. At this point, these rankings are based mainly from returning x-c performances.  Hunches and speculation have been limited.  These rankings are a prediction of where the teams will be at the beginning of the season.  They are not a prediction of what will happen at the end of the season.  Keep in mind that with their move to 4A, Mount Vernon has moved to the WESCO Conference.

Boys

Expect the three schools from Bellingham to battle all year long.  They could be the best three teams in 2A.  Bellingham may not show up on some early State rankings as due to a strong District 1, they did not make the state meet last year.  Don’t sleep on Blaine at the 1A level.

     1.      Squalicum – return full top 7, led by defending 2A champion Gibson. Health may be key.

     2.      Sehome – return 5 of 7, a couple quality incoming frosh. Strong 1-2 with Johnsen and Henderson, with Overman looking to make it a strong three.

     3.      Bellingham – return 5 of 7, quality incoming frosh. Strong track seasons for Charboneau and Speidel.

     4.      Ferndale – Jungkuntz twins powerful 1-2 punch, can they build team around them?

     5.      Lynden Christian – return all 7 from 5^th place 1A state team, senior laden

     6.      Anacortes – bring back 4 varsity seniors

     7.      Burlington – Zabelka leads young squad

     8.      Blaine – led by Bradley and Fontes, could surprise. Bradley should contend for 1A individual title

     9.      Meridian – 5 of 7 back from 10^th place 1A State squad

    10.  Mt. Baker – move to 1A and a healthy Quintana should help

    11.  Sedro-Woolley – young squad looking for a front runner

    12.  Nooksack Valley – like Sedro Woolley, a young squad looking for a front runner with Beard’s graduation

    13.  Lynden – look for improvement as team lost only two members to graduation

Girls

Sehome is an early 2A state favorite, along with Cheney.  Bellingham and Burlington both bring back strong teams that should also have the state podium in their sights.  Look for Meridian to make a serious challenge at the 1A state level and for Mt. Baker to take advantage of their new 1A status.

  

     1.      Sehome – 5 of top 7 back including defending 2A champion Pittis, along with an infusion of freshmen talent

     2.      Bellingham – 6 of 7 back from last year’s 4^th place state team

     3.      Burlington – may be overlooked in many preseason poll’s as an off district meet in a deep district cost them a state berth last year.

     4.      Meridian – an improved Gray combined with a stand-out incoming freshman makes them very dangerous at the 1A level.

     5.      Mt. Baker – move to 1A should help, look for Baker to earn a state bid

     6.      Lynden Christian – Return 6 of 7 from 8^th place state team, led by Hielkema

     7.      Squalicum – Individual title contender Gappa, hoping to get some help around her

     8.      Nooksack Valley – 6 of 7 return from 7^th place state team

     9.      Ferndale – 6 of top 7 return from team that made big strides last year

    10.  Sedro Woolley – 6 of top 7 back from young team.  Move to 2A should be helpful for team’s   development / confidence

    11.  Lynden – All 7 girls back from last year’s team

    12.  Anacortes – Senior O’Clock leads a young team

    13.  Blaine – Return 2 runners from last’s team, led by sophomore Kiele