2A District 1/2 Preview

UPDATE: 10-05 - confirmed that Sammamish will not be running a full, scoring girls team, as they have only registered 3 runners for the meet.  The same three that ran in the varsity race at their Conference meet.  The potential effect would be a possible point detriment to Burlington because if RaynJoy Norton had slipped in front of Silva and Silva counted in the scoring it could have given Burlington a point advantage on Cedarcrest.  But, with four state spots, it is unlikely this will have any effect on the teams qualifying for state.

Projected District Results.  Just a rough estimate to see how things look going in.  This is based mainly from merging the conference meets with time adjustments for courses.  An occasional additional adjustment here or there.  Northwest Conference Course used as base zero.  40 second adjustment for Cascade Conference Course  at South Whidbey and 10 seconds from Kingco at Lake Sammammish – don’t know reason why, but Lake Sammammish course did not appear to run as fast as it usually does.  Cascade Conference adjustment is always difficult as the conference meet is usually pretty spread out, likely affecting times more than just a course adjustment.  Again rough estimates as no other major adjustments were made for off days and no graduated adjustment used.  Some teams take their conference meets pretty easy and some teams pretty much guaranteed state berths take a more conservative approach at Districts.  Plus, some kids simply run out of their heads to make it to state, so should be interesting…

Boys-3 teams to state

Sehome                       49

Squalicum                   69

Bellingham                  71

Cedarcrest                   111

Anacortes                    118

Lakewood                   137

Lake Washington        198

Burlington-E               212

Archbishop-M             250

Granite Falls                278

Sammammish              312

Lynden                        358

Sedro Woolley            369

Girls-4 teams to state

Assuming that Sammammish will not run a full scoring team - Confirmed, see note at top of post.

Sehome                       25

Bellingham                  77

Cedarcrest                   82

Burlington-E               101

Lakewood                   146

Squalicum                   179

Lake Washington        222

Sedro Woolley            240

Granite Falls                252

Archibishop-M            263

Anacortes                    278

Lynden                        inc.

Sammamish                 inc.

NWC Championships - brief summary

The weather was great and the times were fast.  This is the fifth year the Conference has been run on the exact same course, so it is easy to compare times to previous years, and in all accounts, this was a fast year. Tom Bradley out dueled Patrick Gibson for the Boys Title, and Sehome took the team title averaging 16:05 for their top 5, with Squalicum just edging out Bellingham for second.  The big difference for Sehome was at 4 and 5.  On the girls side, with Brittany Gappa out sick, Emily Pittis cruised to the individual title.  Sehome placed 5 in the top 7 to win with 22 points and a top 5 average of 19:02 (a meet record) - a score that would have actually beat the rest of the conference combined.    Bellingham finished 2nd with 68 points, and Burlington was 3rd with what had to be a disappointing 99 points.

Varsity Boys

1. Sehome 58
2. Squalicum 80
3. Bellingham 82
4. Anacortes 130
5. Meridian 139
6. Lynden Christian 165
7. Ferndale 170
8. Burlington-Edison 201
9. Blaine 243
10. Mt. Baker 254
11. Nooksack Valley 322
12. Lynden 335
13. Sedro Woolley 345

Varsity Girls

1. Sehome 22
2. Bellingham 68
3. Burlington-Edison 99
4. Meridian 108
5. Lynden Christian 137
6. Ferndale 177
7. Mt. Baker 188
8. Nooksack Valley 208
9. Squalicum 239
10. Secro Woolley 251
11. Anacortes 278

JV Boys

1. Sehome 18
2. Squalicum 55
3. Anacortes 76
4. Bellingham 101
5. Meridian 158
6. Lynden Christian 175
7. Burlington-Edison 187
8. Lynden 214
9. Blaine 250
10. Sedro Woolley 279


JV Girls

1. Sehome 17
2. Bellingham 42
3. Burlington-Edison 91
4. Meridian 114
5. Ferndale 126
6. Sedro Woolley 170

2A Rankings heading into Post Season

Heading into Post Season, here are some thoughts on how things line up in 2A:

Boys

Cedarcrest has closed hard to put themselves in contention for a State bid in District 1.  District 1 has the Top 4 teams in the state, but only 3 state berths.  The District meet should be a blood bath...Down the road, the State title could be decided with the #5 runners, as all title contenders appear to be struggling to fulfill this role.

1. Sehome
2. Squalicum
3. Bellingham
4. Cedarcrest
5. Deer Park
6. Selah
7. Cheney
8. Lindbergh
9. Capital
10. Mark Morris


Girls

Two of Cheney's top 5 returners on paper from last year's State Champion team have yet to run this year - at this point in the season, they have to be moved down the rankings for this and those of us now in the know have to consider it more and more likely that they will not race this year.  Still difficult to gauge Bellingham and Burlington as they both appear to have a tremendous amount of talent lined up, but haven't quite clicked as a full team this year.

1. Sehome
2. North Kitsap
3. Capital
4. Burlington
5. Bellingham
6. Cheney
7. Cedarcrest
8. Kingston
9. Lakewood
10. Deer Park

Heading into Conference Championships - Girls Preview

See Boys preview below for thoughts on the intrigue of the Northwest Conference Championship Meet.

On the girls side, there are also many interesting things to watch.  Sehome is the heavy favorite, but the intrigue is to see where this teams times will stand compared to past seasons and can they get all top runners clicking on the same day for the first time this year.  The Battle for second should be very tight between Burlington and Bellingham - both contenders and likely favorites for trophies at state, the season to date has been a little below what both had probably suspected - look for them to both to use the Conference Meet to make things right and springboard themselves into the post season.  1A power Meridian has Sydney Gray back after she has missed the vast majority of the season with a stress fracture.  If she comes back strong, Meridian puts themselves back into contention for a State Trophy.  With Gray back in reasonable form, Meridian should be able to hold off fellow 1A Lynden Christian.  Projecting things out, their is an extremely tight battle for 5th place, with 5th-8th place projecting Lynden Christian, Mt. Baker, Ferndale, and Squalicum to all be within 7 points of each other.  Look for Gappa and Pittis to battle for the individual title, with Meggison, Norton, and Oviatt battling over the 3rd through 5th spots.  Beyond that, the question will be can Jensen, Hielkema, Gray, Capron, and Hatcher break up a slew of Sehome runners (Sullivan, Cybula, Hannah, Ringler, Huffman, Clark, Anderson) battling for top ten spots.

Team Predictions


1. Sehome
2. Burlington
3. Bellingham
4. Meridian
5. Lynden Christian
6. Mt. Baker
7. Ferndale
8. Squalicum
9. Nooksack Valley
10. Sedro Woolley
11. Anacortes
12. Lynden
13. Blaine - inc.

Heading into the Conference Championship: Where things stand - Boys

The Northwest Conference Championship Meet is this Wednesday, October 17th - moved up a day due to facility conflicts.  The Conference Meet is always an interesting entity, for many reasons.  One, the NWC has been very deep over the last several years, so it is always a very competitive meet, with some of the top 2A and 1A teams in the state.  Secondly, every team handles it differently.  Some teams destined for state, may hold back a bit, while others may go for it as they want to gauge where they are at.  Many teams have fierce battles going on for their top 7 spots, which can lead to some very intense mid-pack racing.  Lesser teams prime for this meet above all others.  Some teams Wall of Fame's are based off Conference Meet Performances.  With this being the 5th year in a row at the same location, the meet gives teams a great chance to gauge where they are versus previous years.  All in all, many things come together to make it one of the most exciting and fascinating meets of the year.  With this being the 4th year in a row at the same location.

The Boys might lines up to be an amazing battle, as Sehome, Squalicum, and Bellingham are still ranked 1st through 3rd in the State, respectively.  In addition, the individual battle is deeper than it has ever been - Gibson, Bradley, Quintanna, Johnsen, Henderson, Jungkuntz x 2, Fontes, Charbonneaur, Fredlund, and Overman.  Very few Conference Meets of any classification have a top 10 like this.   All that being said, the prediction is that Gibson will retain his individual title and that Sehome will win a tight battle to retain their team title.  The team battle will likely come down to whose #5 runs best...


1. Sehome
2. Squalicum
3. Bellingham
4.Ferndale
5. Anacortes
6. Meridian
7. Burlington
8. Blaine
9. Lynden Christian
10. Mount Baker
11. Lynden Christian
12. Nooksack Valley
13. Sedro Woolley